15th Congressional District Poll by Data for Progress

Poll By Data for Progress Shows Ruben Diaz Sr. in the Lead in the 15th Congressional District

By Robert Press

  In the Data for Progress poll only 323 people with Text to web, and Web Panel responses were used. Data for Progress does not say that the survey was representative of the entire 15th Congressional District nor what parts of the district were surveyed, just that the sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. In other words the poll is to be more Progressive, as is in the name Data for Progress. The reality is that Ruben Diaz Sr. was the State Senator in the majority part of the 15th congressional district for fourteen years, and no other current or former elected official represented as much of the 15th Congressional District as Ruben Diaz Sr. has. 

The Data for Progress poll only lists nine candidates when there are twelve candidates running and on the ballot. The Data for Progress poll has an unsure percentage of 34 %, which when Date for Progress asks which candidate are you leaning to Ruben Diaz Sr. received three times as many responses than Ritchie Torres. Thus the difference becomes much greater between Ruben Diaz Sr. and his nearest challenger. 

Assemblyman Michael Blake was seen the day after the poll came out, and asked for his opinion of the Data for Progress survey. Blake was very candid in his answer saying reverse him and Ritchie Torres, because he Blake not Torres is in second place to Ruben Diaz Sr. in the 15th Congressional race. Assemblyman Blake agreed with the rest of the poll saying that after Diaz Sr. and himself no other candidate has anywhere near ten percent of the vote.

The Data for Progress website was checked where on their blog is a story dated May 19, 2020 titled ‘The Bronx is an Epicenter for Coronavirus and Environmental Injustice’. In the second sentence of the first paragraph is a link to a story on the 15th Congressional District titled ‘The Bronx, long a symbol of American poverty, is now New York City’s coronavirus capital’. The story was written on April 21, 2020 one month after petitions were handed into the Board of Elections declaring twelve candidates for the 15th Congressional District. In the article only Ritchie Torres is quoted out of the twelve candidates, several times at that, is said to be the councilman from the district, when Councilman Torres has only a small part of the 15th Congressional District, that includes Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr. who has a larger part of the Congressional District. City Council members Rafael Salamanca, Vanessa Gibson, and Diana Ayala also have parts of the 15th Congressional District.

Here is the Data for Progress poll 

The State of the Democratic Primary in NY-15June 3, 2020

* A Data for Progress poll found that the contest for the 15th congressional district in the South Bronx is currently a two-way race between New York City Councilmen Ritchie Torres and Rubén Díaz Sr. 


Sean McElwee Executive Director, Data for Progress

Ethan Winter Analyst, Data for Progress

June 2020

Between May 21 and May 24, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 323 likely New York Democratic Primary voters in New York’s 15th Congressional District using both text-toweb and web panel responses. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish. 

In May 2020, Data for Progress used a text-toweb and web panel survey of 323 likely voters in the Democratic primary of New York 15th Congressional Districting to gauge the state of the ongoing race. We found that it’s currently a two-way race. The plurality (34 percent) of likely primary voters are still not sure about who they’ll cast their ballot for. New York City Councilman Rubén Díaz Sr. currently leads the field at 22 percent of the vote, followed by New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres at 20 percent, with Assemblyman Michael Blake, Melissa MarkViverito and Councilman Ydanis Rodríguez at 6 percent. Samelys Lopez has two percent and Jonathan Ortiz, Julio Pabon and Tomas Ramos stand at 1 percent.

When Data for Progress re-asked those who responded that they weren’t sure who they were considering supporting. A majority (56 percent) reported that they aren’t yet leaning towards any of the candidates in particular. Twenty percent reported that they were leaning towards Díaz Sr., with Torres picking up seven percent. 

Data for Progress also asked likely primary voters in the district if they think gay or lesbian relations are morally acceptable or morally wrong. 73 percent of voters think it’s morally acceptable while only 27 percent of voters think it’s morally unacceptable, with 0 percent undecided?

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