Financial Focus: Absentee election math

Financial Focus: Absentee election math

By Professor Anthony Rivieccio MBA PFA

One of the things I love about Math is that you can apply it to anything. 

For the next two weeks , New York will be going through their State & Congressional  Primary elections. There is NO Presidential election this year. Because of the pandamic The Board of Elections” has encouraged ” absentee” voting, along with” in person ” voting. 

Now normally , especially if you are on the political side of the coin, you would not care much, except for this year!!!!

Many have predicted that absentee ballot requests have gone up ” tenfold”. 

Based on data from the New York City Board of Elections , as of June 9th, the city received 491,437 absentee ballot requests. That represents about 13% of the 3.6 million voters who received applications in the mail from the city BOE

In the Bronx , as of June 9th with 62,675 applications mailed, 

that’s an average of 5000 , per community board district . If we presume , that each community board is overrun by another district in half, then we are looking , for each Bronx Assembly, State Senate & Congressional race, an avg of 3000 minimum absentee ballots, per district .

What does that mean: ALOT !.

Let’s just look at one Bronx Assembly race, the 79th Assembly District. Now you have 5 people running in that race. The last primary election 18,000 voted. That means , up to 17% of this election will be decided by absentee ballot.

Let’s look at a bigger race for example, the 16th Congressional race. Based on 182,000 voting for this race two years ago, we should be an effected vote total of only 2%.

Make sense!. The bigger the numbers, the smaller the effect.

So then let’s look at the 32nd State Senate race. At 32,000 in 2018, we are looking at a 9% outcome. 

In the 34th SD, where 36,000 voted in 2018, 5000 would be 14% of absentee ballots. 

District         Votes. Absentee %

78th AD     18,000.     17%

80th AD.   22,000.       14%

13th CD   190,000.         1.6%

16th CD    182,000.       1.6%

So just looking at these numbers let’s make one reasonable assumption. Let’s say 30% do not come to the polls to vote and do not vote, period.

Then, let’s look at the 79th again as an example. Then that number is 22%.

District         Votes. Absentee %

78th AD     18,000.     22%

80th AD.   22,000.       18%

13th CD   190,000.         2.1%

16th CD    182,000.       2.1%

So as far as State Assembly races  are concerned, there could be some surprise winners. If one , in a Assembly race , looks at these percentages, a candidate only needs to technically receive only 39% ( in a 2 person race) to win. 

Or it could make it that much easier for the incubants

Professor Anthony Rivieccio, MBA PFA, is the founder and CEO of The Financial Advisors Group, celebrating its 24th year as a fee-only financial planning firm specializing in solving one’s financial problems. Mr. Rivieccio, a recognized financial expert since 1986, has been featured by many national and local media including: Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, The New York Post, News 12 The Bronx, Bloomberg News Radio, BronxNet Television, the Norwood News, The West Side Manhattan Gazette, Labor Press Magazine, Financial Planning Magazine, WINS 1010 Radio, The Co-Op City News, The Bronx News, and The Bronx Chronicle. Mr.  Rivieccio also pens a financial article called “Money Talk”. Anthony is also currently an Adjunct Professor of Business, Finance & Accounting for both, City University of New York & Monroe College, a Private University. You can reach Anthony at 347.575.5045. 

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