Admiral John C. Aquilino, U.S. Navy Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently testified to Congress about the threats America faces in the Indo-Pacific region.
He warned that America must “move at the speed and pace required to address the rapidly evolving security environment.” He noted that “The complexity of the threats we face requires the U.S. to mobilize the whole of government and use all elements of national power to “counter revisionist powers and their proxies committed to overturning the rules-based order for the benefit of themselves and at the expense of everyone else. However, we must recognize that the most dangerous national security challenges are evolving faster than our current government processes allow us to address them. “
Admiral Aquilino stressed that Each of our three major state threats in the Indo-Pacific region, including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and North Korea “are taking unprecedented actions that challenge international norms and advance authoritarianism. These adversarial regimes are increasingly interconnected, which is evident in Xi and Putin’s declaration of a ‘no limits friendship’ as well as Kim Jong Un’s materiel deliveries to Putin in support of the illegal invasion of Ukraine.”
The Admiral emphasized that China is the only country that has the capability, capacity, and intent to upend the international order. “Even amidst slowing economic growth, China continues its aggressive military buildup, modernization, and coercive “gray-zone operations.”
According to his analysis, “All indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Furthermore, the PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”
Recently, Delays in delivering essential weapons system are jeopardizing international security. As the New York Analysis of Policy and Government has frequently noted, the U.S. Navy will be smaller at the end of President Biden current term than it was when he first took the oath of office.
A key example is the vital program to build more Virgina-class submarines, which are two years behind schedule. Theses vessels may well play the most important role in a dispute with China. According the Government Accountability Office. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106059 The subs are not the only problem. According to the U.S. Accountability Office, “The Department of Defense (DOD) continues to face challenges quickly developing innovative new weapons. These challenges persist even with recent reforms to its acquisition process intended to help deliver systems to the warfighter in a timelier manner. From DOD’s 2020 submission of reports on their major defense acquisition programs to 2022, the number of these programs declined. However, the portfolio’s total cost increased, and the average planned cycle time to deliver operational capabilities shows new delays. Over half of the 26 major defense acquisition programs GAO assessed that had yet to deliver operational capability reported new delays. Driving factors included supplier disruptions, software development delays, and quality control deficiencies. Additionally, these programs continue to make investment decisions without sufficient knowledge, which can increase the risk of delays. Net costs for the 32 major defense acquisition programs that GAO assessed both this year and last year increased by $37 billion. Rising modernization costs, production inefficiencies, and supply chain challenges drove the majority of costs.”
Aquilino addressed the issue bluntly, stating “…the risk we assume is high and trending in the wrong direction, specifically due to delayed delivery of military construction, advanced capabilities, and resources to persistently project and maintain forces west of the International Date Line. “Without a credible deterrent, China, Russia, and other revisionist powers will be emboldened to take action to counter U.S. interests. “
The recently passed budget, signed by the president in March, essentially cuts Defense appropriations when inflation is taken into account.
The irony is that as China gets stronger, Russia gets more aggressive, North Korea becomes a formidable nuclear power, and Iran is about to enter the atomic club, the U.S. is cutting back and dealing with a smaller and increasingly obsolescent force.
Frank Vernuccio serves as editor-in-chief of the New York Analysis of Policy and Government
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